NCAA Tournament Predictions
Another year, another 68 hopefuls. Though this year has a much different vibe. While last year it seemed there were 40ish teams who could have realistically won the title, this year its Kentucky vs the field. My bracket and blog were a huge success last year, the bracket having placed in the top 1% of ESPN's entries and the blog predicting many sleepers such as Uconn, Dayton, Baylor, etc. This year is going to be a little different as I'm just going to break down each region. I will indicate the most vulnerable top seed (1-4 seed in that region) a sleeper team, an upset alert, the best potential match up, and then the bottom line.
The Mid-West:
Most Vulnerable Top Seed: Kansas
Personally I don't think anyone should have Kansas going much deeper than the sweet 16. The past month for the Jayhawks has been one of inconsistency and off the court troubles such as Perry Ellis' knee and Cliff Alexander's investigation. Also the Jayhawks rely on a chunk of their points from the free throw line so on a night when the referees allow physical play Kansas could be in danger. Kansas is also likely mentally desolate to be placed in Kentucky's region, a team that beat them by 32 earlier this year.
Sleeper Team: Indiana
Though the Hoosiers were overseeded in my opinion, their draw is favorable. They drew a first round game against mid major Wichita State who is coming off a loss to Illinois State and plays very few meaningful games per year and a Kansas team next whom I discussed above. Furthermore Indiana has proven it can compete with good teams, pushing Michigan State and Maryland to the brink in the past week. Indiana's history and winning culture also cannot be ignored.
Upset Alert: Texas over Butler
A lot of other articles I'm reading are saying Buffalo over West Virginia but I disagree. Texas survived the most competitive conference top to bottom in the nation with 7 of their losses to ranked teams by a combined total of 25 points, all in the midst of bubble drama. I believe their experience in the Big 12 as well as their clean slate without worry of how the committee will view them could allow them to overtake an average Butler squad. Although picking against Butler has been unrewarding in recent years.
Best Potential Match Up: Kentucky vs Notre Dame
This shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. Kentucky remains an unstoppable force but Notre Dame is peaking after beating Duke and UNC and winning an ACC title in the process. UK has monstrous size but Notre Dame can counter that with great shooters. Add in a little "luck of the Irish" and things could get interesting.
Bottom Line:
As stated earlier Kentucky remains both an unstoppable force and an immovable object. Though Notre Dame poses an intriguing threat, Kentucky is too focused on immortality to let anyone in this region take that away from them. Though Notre Dame and possibly Maryland could make Kentucky uncomfortable at times, Kentucky always turns the notch to another level when their back is against the wall. I expect that trait to remain in tact in this region.
As stated earlier Kentucky remains both an unstoppable force and an immovable object. Though Notre Dame poses an intriguing threat, Kentucky is too focused on immortality to let anyone in this region take that away from them. Though Notre Dame and possibly Maryland could make Kentucky uncomfortable at times, Kentucky always turns the notch to another level when their back is against the wall. I expect that trait to remain in tact in this region.
West
Most Vulnerable Top Seed: ArizonaDespite how great the Arizona program is, they haven't made a Final 4 since the 2000-01 season and haven't done so during the Sean Miller era (began in 2009). This Arizona team is no different than the many that fell short during this time. Sure there are play makers but there's nothing special about them that differentiates them from the good teams outside the Pac-12.
Sleeper Team: Baylor
I know this isn't super bold seeing as Baylor is a 3 seed, but I feel like they are being overlooked by the overwhelming support of Wisconsin, Arizona, and UNC. Baylor plays good zone defense and shoots the ball well, a formula for success. For Baylor to lose someone is going to have to prove themselves beyond the arc. Baylor may be succeptible to this, but an elite 8 run is quite plausible.
Upset Alert: BYU over Xavier
Now this is bold because I'm assuming BYU will defeat Ole Miss in the play in game. But when they do they'll be quite a load for Xavier to handle. BYU ranks 9th in offensive efficiency largely due to their star senior guard Tyler Haws who averages 22 ppg and is a Naismith finalist. BYU is fundamentally sound and a great free throw shooting team so in a close game situation all signs point to BYU. Plus having already won a game earlier in the week will ease the pressure off them and onto the Muskateers. Harvard is also on my watch list.
Best Potential Match Up: Wisconsin vs. Arizona
A rematch of last year's elite 8 game in which Wisconsin defeated Arizona due in part to a controversial foul call on Nick Johnson that Wildcats fans remember all to well. Arizona would come out hungry due to last years history and their final 4 drought and Wisconsin would counter hoping to silence Wildcat fans and reach a 2nd consecutive final 4. Yeah 1 vs 2 is normally cliche and boring but I think most basketball fans would not be opposed to this.
Bottom line:
Personally I believe Wisconsin will meet UNC in the sweet 16 and the winner of that game will win the region. Wisconsin is consistent and fundamentally sound, they rebound well, limit turnovers, and play intelligent basketball. UNC I like because I believe Marcus Paige is one of the best guards in this tournament. He could make the difference in a game where UNC's size and athleticism can stalemate Wisconsin's bigs.
South
Vulnerable Top Seed: Gonzaga, Iowa State, and Georgetown
Yes I've elected every team but Duke for vulnerability. The Zags are exposed in the tournament every year for playing no one during the regular season and then failing to stand up to real competition. I expect the same this year. The Cyclones have a bad habbit of falling behind in games and then rallying back, but one of these games they may dig themselves a hole they cannot climb out of. And Georgetown, a team that greatly struggled with middle class Big East teams and has a bad history recently of early tournament exits.
Sleeper Team: SMU
For some unknown reason the committee greatly disrespects the AAC conference, even after Uconn's 2014 national title. They won both the regular and post season conference titles behind the leadership of AAC player of the year Nic Moore and big man Markus Kennedy. They're also coached by Larry Brown: the only man to win both an NCAA championship (Kansas) and an NBA championship (Detroit).
Upset Alert: Eastern Washington over Georgetown
Everyone else seems to want to go with Stephen F. Austin over Utah but I'm more skeptical. SFA doesn't start anyone over 6'6 so I think down the stretch Utah will be able to overpower them in a war of attrition. Georgetown on the other hand was treated most generously by the committee when it was granted a 4 seed while its play was deserving of no higher than a 6. Eastern Washington has the nation's leading scorer in Tyler Harvey, who averages 23 ppg and has put up a 42, 39, and 35 in the process. The Eagles have the 3rd ranked offense in the country and dethroned Indiana earlier this year. The Hoyas may lose some sleep over this one.
Best Potential Match Up: Duke vs SMU
This would have so much to offer. Seeing Coach K and Larry Brown coach against each other would be more than enough, and the fact that Larry Brown played at UNC adds some extra spice. Then consider Nic Moore against Tyus Jones and Jahlil Okafor against the size of SMU. While SMU/Duke may not be the sexiest match up on paper an in depth look shows otherwise.
Bottom Line: While Duke has been the victim of major upsets in the past few tournaments (Lehigh, Mercer) this year's draw is carved out rather nicely for them. No major threats until the elite 8 in which Iowa State or SMU would pose the greatest threat, This Duke team is also more talented than those in year's past. Okafor is arguably the best player in the country and the backcourt of Duke is also among the nation's elite. Many will jump the Iowa State bandwagon but a team that doesn't perform consistently for 40 minutes will fall short to the Blue Devils.
East
Vulnerable Top Seed: Villanova
The Wildcats live and die by the 3-ball, a style that could put them on thin ice when they go against a good perimeter defensive team in the round of 32 whether that be N.C. State or LSU. While 'Nova's 33-2 record is impressive, it merely won against an average Big East conference and only played one tournament team in its non conference schedule (VCU). The Wildcats may succumb to the pressure when their backs are against the wall to better opponents.
Sleeper Team: Michigan State
Sparty and Uconn are the March dark horses year in and year out, and more often than not they live up to the hype. Tom Izzo is as good at this stage as anyone, his 6 final 4's substantiate that. And once again the Spartans are peaking in March, just a late blown lead to the #4 team in the country prevented them from a Big 10 title. I felt they were underseeded as a 7 but many MSU fans have come to realize a seed is but a number.
Upset Alert: Upset Alert: Wyoming over Northern Iowa
I think the Cowboys have a great opportunity here. This game should be low scoring but Wyoming's ability to offensive rebound will give it more chances to score in this offensive struggle. If it's close in the final 10 minutes Wyoming will begin to believe it's destiny and Northern Iowa will begin to feel the pressure of avoiding the upset. 5/12 games also make for great upset picks historically. I would also keep an eye on Louisville/UC Irvine. The Anteaters play zone and in the middle sits 7'6 (8'3 inch wingspan) Mamadou Ndiaye. This will create problems for Montrezl Harrell and force Louisville to either beat Irvine from outside or pentrate and attempt to get the giant in foul trouble.
Best Potential Match Up: Michigan State vs. Louisville
I was originally going to pick Michigan State/Virginia but the idea of Izzo vs Pitino for a trip to the final 4 takes the cake. While both teams have only looked like legitimate contenders in spurts, they both have winning cultures in March and embrace physical play. A good old fashioned slug fest between 2 hall of fame masterminds of the game is the desired headliner of this region.
Bottom line:
This was 100% the region I struggled the most with. I believe Virginia has all the tools, but they need Justin Anderson to return to pre-injury form to really make the championship push. The UVA/MSU winner may very well represent the region, though Oklahoma could be the silent assassin no one is talking about. Northern Iowa is worth discussing too, a top 10 team in many polls snubbed with a 5 seed. There's honestly 10 or 11 teams capable of winning this region, but if you twisted my arm I'd say UVA or Sparty.
Sleeper Team: SMU
For some unknown reason the committee greatly disrespects the AAC conference, even after Uconn's 2014 national title. They won both the regular and post season conference titles behind the leadership of AAC player of the year Nic Moore and big man Markus Kennedy. They're also coached by Larry Brown: the only man to win both an NCAA championship (Kansas) and an NBA championship (Detroit).
Upset Alert: Eastern Washington over Georgetown
Everyone else seems to want to go with Stephen F. Austin over Utah but I'm more skeptical. SFA doesn't start anyone over 6'6 so I think down the stretch Utah will be able to overpower them in a war of attrition. Georgetown on the other hand was treated most generously by the committee when it was granted a 4 seed while its play was deserving of no higher than a 6. Eastern Washington has the nation's leading scorer in Tyler Harvey, who averages 23 ppg and has put up a 42, 39, and 35 in the process. The Eagles have the 3rd ranked offense in the country and dethroned Indiana earlier this year. The Hoyas may lose some sleep over this one.
Best Potential Match Up: Duke vs SMU
This would have so much to offer. Seeing Coach K and Larry Brown coach against each other would be more than enough, and the fact that Larry Brown played at UNC adds some extra spice. Then consider Nic Moore against Tyus Jones and Jahlil Okafor against the size of SMU. While SMU/Duke may not be the sexiest match up on paper an in depth look shows otherwise.
Bottom Line: While Duke has been the victim of major upsets in the past few tournaments (Lehigh, Mercer) this year's draw is carved out rather nicely for them. No major threats until the elite 8 in which Iowa State or SMU would pose the greatest threat, This Duke team is also more talented than those in year's past. Okafor is arguably the best player in the country and the backcourt of Duke is also among the nation's elite. Many will jump the Iowa State bandwagon but a team that doesn't perform consistently for 40 minutes will fall short to the Blue Devils.
East
Vulnerable Top Seed: Villanova
The Wildcats live and die by the 3-ball, a style that could put them on thin ice when they go against a good perimeter defensive team in the round of 32 whether that be N.C. State or LSU. While 'Nova's 33-2 record is impressive, it merely won against an average Big East conference and only played one tournament team in its non conference schedule (VCU). The Wildcats may succumb to the pressure when their backs are against the wall to better opponents.
Sleeper Team: Michigan State
Sparty and Uconn are the March dark horses year in and year out, and more often than not they live up to the hype. Tom Izzo is as good at this stage as anyone, his 6 final 4's substantiate that. And once again the Spartans are peaking in March, just a late blown lead to the #4 team in the country prevented them from a Big 10 title. I felt they were underseeded as a 7 but many MSU fans have come to realize a seed is but a number.
Upset Alert: Upset Alert: Wyoming over Northern Iowa
I think the Cowboys have a great opportunity here. This game should be low scoring but Wyoming's ability to offensive rebound will give it more chances to score in this offensive struggle. If it's close in the final 10 minutes Wyoming will begin to believe it's destiny and Northern Iowa will begin to feel the pressure of avoiding the upset. 5/12 games also make for great upset picks historically. I would also keep an eye on Louisville/UC Irvine. The Anteaters play zone and in the middle sits 7'6 (8'3 inch wingspan) Mamadou Ndiaye. This will create problems for Montrezl Harrell and force Louisville to either beat Irvine from outside or pentrate and attempt to get the giant in foul trouble.
Best Potential Match Up: Michigan State vs. Louisville
I was originally going to pick Michigan State/Virginia but the idea of Izzo vs Pitino for a trip to the final 4 takes the cake. While both teams have only looked like legitimate contenders in spurts, they both have winning cultures in March and embrace physical play. A good old fashioned slug fest between 2 hall of fame masterminds of the game is the desired headliner of this region.
Bottom line:
This was 100% the region I struggled the most with. I believe Virginia has all the tools, but they need Justin Anderson to return to pre-injury form to really make the championship push. The UVA/MSU winner may very well represent the region, though Oklahoma could be the silent assassin no one is talking about. Northern Iowa is worth discussing too, a top 10 team in many polls snubbed with a 5 seed. There's honestly 10 or 11 teams capable of winning this region, but if you twisted my arm I'd say UVA or Sparty.
